🏗️ Worried About an Over Supply When Investing in Dubai Real Estate?

An investor recently said to me “Habibi, tell them to stop building in Dubai”.

I laughed at the time but he’s right to be worried. There was over 147,000 off plan units launched in 2024. With an additional 93,000 launched in the first half of 2025 (Property Monitor).

As an investor myself, I look for opportunities where the supply is lower than the demand. However, it’s becoming increasingly difficult in Dubai. Construction is everywhere and supply is not slowing down.

Supply Pipeline as per DXB Interact:

• 2025 = 49,000 units

• 2026 = 81,000 units

• 2027 = 72,000 units

So, with thousands of options how do you pick the right investment?

Well, in my opinion, it all comes down to real supply and predictable demand...

🏙️ The Real Supply Coming to Dubai

Firstly, it’s important to understand that projects will be delayed and developers will strategically postpone handover to combat oversupply.

Big developers are hyper aware of the “supply problem”. DAMAC Lagoons is a great example of this. Even though the first phase is ready (847 units), the developer is staggering handover so the market can absorb the new supply.

A comprehensive study from Morgan’s predicts Dubai will only handover:

• 2025 = 23,000 units

• 2026 = 35,000 units

• 2027 = 70,500 units

It’s also important to know what types of properties are handing over (data from Cavendish Maxwell):

• A Tsunami of Apartments: 77.3% of all newly completed residential units in H1 2025 were apartments

• Houses are Rare: 22.7% of handovers in H1 2025 were villas and townhouses.

• Supply is Higher in Certain Areas: Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), Sobha Hartland & MBR City together accounted for 42.4% of all handovers in H1 2025

Indicating a lack of supply in family homes and premium locations.

💸 What is Predictable Demand When Investing?

Predictable demand is consistent in all market conditions. It doesn’t change based on whether the market is going up or down. It follows people’s daily lives, not short-term hype.

People need places to live close to their work, children’s schools, and essential services. They value safety, good infrastructure, and a community they can see themselves in for years.

• Communities

• Commuting distances

• Views, lifestyle and amenities

• Schooling and Safety

• Price per SQFT

For example, I started investing in 2018 and my strategy was to buy properties near universities and benefit from the consistent demand from people moving to study. It was simple and predictable. Even during COVID I maintained a 100% occupancy.

So, forget about hype. Focus on habits and long-term trends when investing in Dubai real estate.

📈 Trends & Market Maturity In Dubai

Over the last 5 years, the demand in Dubai has been driven by population growth, global instability, and investor speculation. However, as the city matures so does the demand.

Rising School Enrolment:

387,441 students were enrolled in Dubai's private schools during the 2024–25 academic year—an increase of +6% YoY. Indicating a growing demand for “family style” housing.

Community Focused:

A Property Finder survey highlighted a significant rise in buyers looking for community-rich environments, lifestyle, wellness, and social integration.

Wage Increases:

Tech (+8–12%) and Finance (+5–7%) have seen the highest wage growth in 2025. Suggesting a strong long-term demand for housing suitable for wealthy young professionals in central locations or with good access routes.

Indian Expats:

Indians alone make up about over 50% of Dubai’s population, forming the largest single nationality group. With that in mind, 40–60% of Indian homebuyers place a premium on Vastu compliance (the direction the property faces).

Population Boom:

The population climbed to 3,984,000 in H1 2025, a + 6.1% YoY increase (230,000 new residents). Indicating a high likelihood that the market will be able to absorb the new supply if this trend continues.

💭 Summary

The supply new properties coming to the market will put downwards pressure on prices and rental income. However, not all areas will be effected. The real supply will be slower than most investors think due to delays, staged handovers, and developer strategy. Additionally, not all areas will be effected.

The key is to focus on units with persistent demand and low supply:

• Prime locations with strong commuting links and amenities

• Family-friendly villas and townhouses in limited supply

• Affordable or mid-range apartments in high-demand communities

In other words, oversupply risk exists, but rare, well-positioned properties will continue to perform. When the dust settles, demand always flows to homes people actually want to live in.

📈 Pre-Launch Investment Opportunities

Have you Seen the New 20/80 Payment Plans?!

There is a new project launching in Sports City with offering an 20/80 payment plan... 20% during construction and 80% on handover. and to make it even sweeter, you can resell it after you pay 20% + DLD.

📍 Location: Sports City

🗓️ Launch Date: September

🏁 Handover: 2028

• Studio = 602,000

• 1 Bedroom = 883,000

• 2 Bedroom = 1.35M

• 3 Bedroom = 2M

The developer is accepting EOI’s. Only AED 5,000 to secure priority access once sales open and fully refundable if you do not find a unit you like.

📰 THIS WEEK’S TOP NEWS STORIES

Global Investors Are Still Investing:

Knight Frank and YouGov teamed up survey high-net-worth individuals from the UK, India, China, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong and Singapore. The results? 33% of them desire to own a property in Dubai.

Record 260M Sale in Emirates Hills:

The 50,000 plot was never publicly listed and could only be viewed by buyers who passed pre-qualification. Further solidifying Emirates Hills as the home of the rich and famous.

Big Businesses are Coming to Dubai:

JD(.com), the Chinese retail giant has opened a 10,000-meter warehouse in Dubai's Jebel Ali Free Zone. The facility represents company’s first physical investment in the country and continues the trend of global businesses moving infrastructure into the the city.

One Freezone Passport:

Dubai has introduced, a new scheme that allows companies licensed in one free zone to expand operations into other free zones across the emirate without requiring an additional licence. Streamlining expansion and reducing regulatory headaches.

First Timer Buyer Priority:

The Wasl Group launches a new South Garden phase with exclusive allocation for Dubai first-time home buyers. Reinforcing its role in supporting the city’s vision (the Dubai Real Estate Strategy 2033), which aims to raise homeownership rates across the emirate.

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